AFRIKA WAY TOOSAYSAA: WQ OMER A YOUSUF

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AFRIKA WAY TOOSAYSAA:  EE GOORMA AYUUCIMLAQANI TOOSAYAA? HADAY TOOSTO, SOMALILAND MA KA FAA’IIDAYSA?

Jagdish N. Sheth oo ah Professor ka dhiga JamacadaEmory University, ayaa sanadkii 2017 soo bandhigaywarbixin uu ugu yeedhayTHE AFRICAN AWAKENING: WHEN WILL THE GIANT WAKE-UP?” Taasi Afka Somali ku noqonaysa “AFRIKA WAYTOOSAYSAA:  EE GOORMA AYUU CIMLAQANI TOOSAYAA?

Professor Jagdish waxuu yidhi su’aash ay tahay in aynu is waydiina waxay tahay “YAA TOOSIN DOONA CIMLAQANI?”.

Haddaba, war bixinta Professor Jagdish waxay ka koobantahay laba qaybood. Qabta hore, waa xogta iyo xaqiiqdajirta ee doodisa ku tageerayo. Qaybta labadna waxay ka kooban tahay 10 qodab oo ah waxa Afrika ay tahay in ay samayso. Marka waxaan qoralkani doonaya in aan kagahadlo qaybta hore (Part one) iyo sida dalalka Afrika ugafaa’iid karan kobaca dhaqaale, iyo siday Somaliland ugaqayb qaadan karto.

Qarnigii 1800 waxaa loo yaqaan Qarniga Yurub (ama European Century). Qarnigani waa wakhtiga ay dalalkaYurub qarada Afrika iyo calamka gumaysanayeen, khayradkooda dabicigana dalalkooda ku dhisanayeen.

Qarniga 1900 waxaa loo yaqaan Qarniga Maraykanka.Qarnigani waa markii dhaqaalaha dalalka Yurub ay kuburbureen dagaalada kowaad iyo labaad, Maraykankunala wareegay awooda, noqdayna dalka ugu dhaqaalahawayn calamka.

Halka qarniga 21 yahay qarniga Asiya iyo Afrika. Hafkahore ee qarniga 21-ka (sanadaha 2001 -2049) waa mid dalalka Asiya uu Shiinihu hormood u yahay. Japan, Koofurta Koriya, Indiya iyo dalalka Ashiya kalana ay qayb ka yihiin.

Professor Jagdish waxuu warbixitiisa ku doodaya in half-ka kale qarnigani 21-ka uu noqon doono qarniga Afrika.

Haddaba, Professor Jagdish ma ah nin iska hadlaya, ee sicalmiyaysan ayuu u soo bandhigay xaqiiqda jirta eeqaarada u horseedaya in dhaqaalahoodu si xawliya ugukabci doono. Waxaanu yidhi sida uu calamku uga yaabaykobaca dhaqaale ee Shiinaha ayay fajaciso ku noqondoonta kobaca dhaqaale ee qarada Afrika.

Professor Jagdish wuxuu soo bandhigay 4 qodab oo u samaxaya in dhaqalaha qarada Afrika kor u kaco:

1) Dhaqaalaha dabaqada dhexe ee qaarada Afrika ookordhaya, kuwaasi oo awooda in ay iibsan karaanalaabooyin tayo leh (Branding consumption). Dhaqalaha-macmiisha wax iibsanaysa (ama Consumer Economy) ee qarada Afrika waxaynoqonayaa mishiinka dhaqaale ee qarada.

2) Qaarada Afrika waxay qani ku tahay khayraddabiiciga ah (National resource).

3) Dadka Afrikanku waa dad ganacsiga abuurida kufiican (ama entrepreneurial ah). Ganacsiga abuuridakuma xidhna waxbarshada qofka, rag ama dumar. Qof aqoon waxbarasho lahayn, oo dumar ah ayaaganacsi hanaqaada samayn karta.

4) Qarada Afrika waxay ka gudbaysaa dhaqalahabeeralayda (agrarian economy), waxaanay u gudbaysa dhaqaalaha warshadaha (industrial economy). Taasi oo u samaxaya qarada in aywarshadayso alaabteeda qaydhiin iyo khayradkeedadabiiciga ah. Teeda kalana hay’adaha sida UN waxay qarada soo gaadhsiin doonay qarniga 21.

Professor Jagdish wuxuu soo bandhigay xogta dhaqaaleee Bangiga Calamka 2015-ka soo baxday:

1) GDP-da 54-ka wadan ee Afrika waxaa lagu qiyaasa$6 Trillion. Halka GDP-da dalalka Saxaraha Afrikaka hooseeyana ay u tahay $4 Trillion.

2) Isku celceliska kobaca dhaqaalaha qarada Afrika waa4.6% (2007 – 2015). Mida kale, tobanka dalka ee ugusareeya kobaca dhaqaalaha calamku, 6 ka midi waxay ku yaalan Afrika.  {Note: 2015 – 2017 kobacadhaqaale dalka Maraykanku wuxuu ahaa: (1.0% – 2.2%); UK (2.3% – 1.7%); France (1.0% – 2.3%); China 6.9%.}

3) Tirada dadka qarada Afrika ku nool waxay kor u dhaafeen 1 Billion (hal Billion) qof.

4) Isku cel celiska hantida qofkii Afrikanku helo waa$4,870 Sanadkii (oo ku salaysan GDPPPP qofkii).

Professor Jagdish wuxuu soo bandhigay xogta dhaqaaleee Bangiga Aduunka 2015 (ku salaysan GDP-PPP).:

New Measures of World Economies (2015) World Bank(by GDP-PPP)

​​​​​ 2015 (USA dollars)​​2017 (USA dollars) by World Fact

1) Shiinaha (China) ​​​$20 Trillion​​$23.2 Trillion

2) Maraykanka (The USA)​​$18 Trillion​​$19.5 Trillion

3) Indiya​​​ ​$8 Trillion​​$9.5 Trillion

4) Jaban (Japan)​​​$5 Trillion ​​$5.4Trillion

5) Jermany (Germany)​​$4 Trillion​​$4.2Trillion

6) Ruush-ka (Russia)​​​$3.2 Trillion​​$4.0 Trillion

7) Brasil​​​​$3.2 Trillion.​​$9.5 Trillion

8) France ​​​​$2.7 Trillion​​$2.86Trillion

9) Ingiriiska ​​​$2.7 Trillion​​$2.93Trillion

Haddii aad eegtid liiskani waxay qarada Afrika ka galaysakalinta afarad. Halka dalalka saxaaraha Afrika ka hooseeya ka galayan kalinta shanad. Waxaad ogaatadhaqaalaha Afrika wali ma bilaabmin ama waa fadhibarad. Waxase la filayaa in GDP Afrika 2050 uu noqdo$29 Trillion dollar (USA), ama mudo ka yar 30 sano.

Professor Jagdish waxuu 2008 qoray boog uu ugu magacdaray kobaca Chindia (ama Chindia Rising). Buugani uukaga hadlayo samaynta kobaca dhaqaale ee Shiinaha iyoIndiya ku yeelan doono aduunka, iyo siyasada calamka(ama geopolitical).

Buugani waxa Professor-ku kaga hadlay awooda dalalkauu ugu yeedhay saddex geesoodka hore (old triad power) iyo kuwa cusub. Dalalka saddex geesoodka hore waxayka kooban yihiin 15 dal ee kala ah: 1) CANADA & MARAYKANKA 2) GALBEEDKA YURUB iyo 3) JABAN oo dagalka labad ka dib kuu soo biirtay. Haddaba, Professor Jagdish waxuu soo bandhigayxaqiiqda dhaqaale ee saddex geesoodkani sanadkii 1987-kii:

a) 45% Ganacsiga calamku waxuu ka dhexeeyay 15-kanidal.

b) 70% GDP calamku ama dhaqaalaha calamka wuxuuiskugu ururay 15-kani dal. Dalalka kale calamkusamayn wayn kumay lahayn. Haddaba, dadka ku nooldalalkani si xawliya ayay u gaboobayaan. Waxaanayxaqiiqsadeen in ayna kobac dhaqaale dalalkoodunaaanu suurto gal ahayn.

c) Siyaasiyiinta dalalkani, si dalalkooda daganashosiyaasadeed u helaan, waxay isku dayaan siday u kobcin lahaayeen dhaqaalaha dalalkooda, sidadkooda shaqooyin ugu abuuran.

Note:

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) waa qiimaynta isku gaynta wax soo saarka iyo adeega dal wakhti cayiman (sanad oo kale).

GDP PPP (purchasing power parity) waa wax soo saarkaguud oo dollar lagu badalay, laguna qiyaas qaadanayo awoodawax iibsi ee dal.

Awooda Maraykanku waxay xoogaysatay, markiidagaalkii labad lagu jabiyay Jaban iyo Jermany. Maraykanka waxuu hogaanka u qabtay calamka. Waxuumaalgaliyay, oo dib-u dhis ku sameeyay Jermalka iyoJaban. Waxaa kale oo sameeyeen hay’da maamuladhaqaalaha calamka iyo nabadgalyada, sida IMF iyoBangiga aduunka iyo Qaramada Midoobay (United Nations).

Haddaba, dadka dalalkani saddexda geesoodka ahi waadadcad oo ka soo jeeda qarada Yurub (Japan mooye).Sida daraadeed, waxay ahaayeen kuwa isku dhaqan ah, isku falsafad ah, is fahmaya, waxna wada aamin san. Tusaale ahaan, dalalkani waxaa ka hana qaaday habkadimuqradiyada, ganacsiga xorta ah, hantigoosed ka (ama capitalism).

Lakiin, kobaca dhaqaale ee calamka ka jira waxuuabuuray saddex geesad cusub oo kala ah: 1) Shiinaha 2) Maraykanka iyo 3) Indiya.

Dalalkani waa quruumo kala duwan, kala falsafad ah, oonisku si u fakirin. Tusaale ahaan, dalka Shiinuhu waa hantiwadaag (Communism) ku dhaqma hanti-goosad dawladumaamusho. India waa hantiwadaag (Socialism)dimuqradiya oo mudooyinkani danbe casriyeen habkiisadhaqaale, lakiin dadkiisu sas ka qaban habka hanti-goosadka iyo in bayacmushtarigu maamulo kabayaashadhaqaalaha waawayn. Halka dalka Maraykanka u yahayhantigoosidka xag jira ah, oo aaminsan in dhaqaalahabayac mushtariga maamulo oo kaliya shaqayn karo.

Haddaba, waxaa uu yidhi Professorku kobaca dhaqaale eeqarada Afriku waa mid GEED KA-GO’ANA. Waxaanayqaradu noqonaysaa mishiinka dhaqaale ee calamka.

Haddaba, haddii aan soo gunaado warsaxaafadeedkaProfessor Jagdish. Wax yaabaha u samaxaya in dhaqalahaqarada Afrika kor u kaco waxa kow ka ah; dadka (ama Human resource), qaarada Afrika waxa ku nool dad kor u dhaafay hal Billion, oo waliba dhalin yaro u badan (25%  ka yar yihiin 19 jir). Dabaqada dhexe ee qaaradumaalinba maalinta ka danbaysa wuu sii kordhayaa. Midalabaad, qaradu waxay leedahay Khayradka dabiiciga(Natural resources) oo ayna qaradaha kale calamkulahayn. Haday lahaan jireena ay isticmaaleen.

Xoogaga dhaqaale ee is haya ee Shiinaha, Indiya iyoMaraykanku waxay u kala dheeraynayaan, una kala dheeran doona siday qarada Afrika khayradkooda iyosiday macaamiisheeda wax uga iibin lahaayeen. Shiinahasi wayn ayuu u maal gashanaya qarada, waxanu doonayaainuu hormood u noqdaan iskashiga kobaca dhaqaale eeqarada. Mudo dhawna waxaad arki doonta maal gashigasharkadaha caalamka oo si xawliya ugu soo qul qulayaqaarada Afrika. Xaqiiqda jirtaa waxay tahay; sharkadkasta oo macaash dooni waxay maal-gashi ku samaysaameesha uu dhaqaalaheedu kobcayo.

Haddaba, qaybo ka mida qaarada ayaa isku diyaarinayasiday uga faa’iidaysan lahaayeen dhaqdhaqa dhaqaale eesocda. Kuwaso oo samaystay isbahaysi dhaqaale ooy kumidaysan yihiin. Waxaana ka mid ah:  ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) ooy kumidoobeen 15 wadan ee Galbeedka Afrika. SADC (Southern African Development Communityoo kumidoobeen 16 dal ee Koonfurta Afrika. EAC (East African Communityooy ku bahooben 6 wadan ee BarigaAfrika ee loo yaqa Great lake region.

Dalkasta marka dhaqaalihiisu kobco, waxaa kordhadabaqadiisa dhexe, mushahar dadku rabana wuukordhayaa. Taasina waa ta keentay in dhaqaalahaMaraykanka ee ku tiirsana warshadaha, uu isku badalomid ku salaysan macaamiil wax kala iibsada (Consumer Economy).

Taasina waa ta keentay in ay warshadahii Maraykanku uwareegan dalka Shiinah, oo lahaa shaqaale badan oomushahar jaban ku shaqaynaya. Taasina waxay dalkaShiinaha ka dhigtay dalka ugu wax soo saarkawarshadaha badan.

Haddaba, dhaqaalaha dalka Shiinihu kor ayuu u socdaa. Waxaana badanaya dabaqada dhexe ee Shiinaha, musharharka dadka shiinuhu wuu kordhaay. Taasinawaxay keentay in warshado badan ka guuran Shiinaha una guuraan dalalka Asiya iyo Afrika. Haddaba, qaradaAfrika waxay kaga fiican dalalka Asiya, Afriki shaqaalojaban oo kaliya ma leh ee waxay leedahay khayradkii iyowaliba macmiisha wax iibsanaysay. Taasina waa mida sooda dajinaysa kobaca dhaqaale ee qarada.

Mida kale, sanadkii 1979-kii waxuu dalka Shiinahuhirgaliyay siyaasada qoyska ee ahayd Hal-Ilmo qoyskii(ama One-child policy) tani ooy ku yareeyan kobacadadka, oo si xawliya ku socday. Tani se waxay keentay intirada dadkooda yar-yar (24 jir ka yar) iyo kuwoodawaawayn (56 ka wayn) ay is lekadan. Taasina waxay u horseedaysa in dadkoodu hawl-gabka ahi badan doonan.

Teeda kale, dadka gaboobay, ee hawl-gabka ah ee qaradaYurub iyo dalka Jaban si xawliya ayay u socdaan. Tusaale, qarada Yururb dadkooda waawayn (56 jir waxiika wayn) iyo dadkooda hawl-kar ahi (25 jir ilaa 54) way isku dhaw yihiin, ama 34%, iyo 41%, sida u kala horeeyan. Halka dalka Jaban ay dadka waawayn ka badan yihiin (ama 41.25% iyo 36.8%). Haddaba, dadku markaay hawl gab noqdan, gunada yar ay qaatan wax badan kuma iibsan karaan. Teeda kalena, waxay u bahan yihiincafimaad iyo daryeel joogta ah.

Halka qofku marka uu yar yahay wuu shaqysanayaa, cashuur ayuu bixinayaa, waxbuu iibsanayaa, qoys ayuusamaysanayaa. Marka dalalkani dhaqaalaha lahaa waxaywaajiheen in dadkooda hawl-gabka ahi bataan. Taasinawaxay keenaysaa in dhaqaluhu kobcin, dawladahoodanakharash badan kaga baxo daryeelkooda.

Haddaba, sharkadaha, iyo dawlaha hantida dadka hawl-gabka haya (ama Pension fund), lacagta ay hayaan waalacag badan oo Trillion-o ah (Trillions of US dollars). Waxayna raban in ay hantidoodu u kobacdo, oy macashsamayso, si ay si joogta ah u bixiyaan gunada iyocafimaadka ay siiyan dadkooda hawl-gabka ah.

Sida daraadee, waxay maalgashigoodu yahay mid qorshewakhti dheer ah, oo macaashkiisu badnayn, lakiinsanadkiin macaash yaryar ku helan. Mida kale, hantidadadkani kuma khamaarayaan, oo ma galinayaan suuqyada samilayda ah calamiga ah ee baxa dagaya, sida Wall-street oo kale. Waxa la yidhi ‘biyo meel godan ayay isugutagan’. Mar haddii dhaqaalaha qarada Afrika yahay mid sijoogta ah u kobcaya, waxay sharkadahani hantidooda galindoonan qarada Afrika.

Haddaba, si qarada Afriki ugu faa’iidaysato maalgashigaasi, waa in ay dib habayn (reform) ku samaysohabka dawladnimo iyo ka dhaqaale. Sida daraadee, dalalka Afrika waxay gali doonan tartan gudahooda ah, dalka sameeya hab dawladanimo oo si hufan (ama transparent) ah u shaqaya ayaa ka faa’iidi doona kobacadhaqaale ee qaarada. Kuwa kalana silica iyo gajada ayayku sii jiri doonan. Waayo cidna maal-galin mayso dal musuq-masiq iyo dawlad xumo ragaadisay.

Gaba gabadii, Somaliland waxay ku taala albaabka lagagalayay qaarada. Marka haddii dib u hayn ku samaynohabkeena dawladeed iyo keena dhaqaale, si uu ula hanaqaado isbadalka dhaqaale ee qarada, waxaan qabaa in aynu noqon karno Singapore iyo Hon-Kong ta qarada. Haddaba, sababta aanu u samayn Forum-ka DAN QARAN (www.danqaran.org), waa siddii aynu u sixilahayn habka dawladnimo, si aynu uga faa’iidaysanokhayradka dalkeena iyo bogcada Istaraataji-ga ah (strategy) ee Illahay inaga abuuray.

LA SOCO QAYBTA-LABAD (PART TWO). Tobanka qodab eeProfessorku yidhi Afriki u bahan tahay…

SOMALILAND HA NOOLATO !!!!

OMAR A. YOUSUF

Omaryousuf455@gmail.com

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