Ethiopia: An Outcome and Possible Scenarios After TDF Victory

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PM Abiy Ahmed ignited unnecessary devastating civil wars in Ethiopia. He ordered military invasion of Tigre Region on November 4, 2020 inflicting ethnic cleansing, destruction, famine, looting, rampant rape and displacement. The reason of why Abiy Ahmed invaded Tigre Region was because Tigre Administration rejected his looming dictatorship. Amhara hardliners were also pushing Abiy to invade Tigre Region hoping to eliminate Tigre people rivalry in power in order to restore Amhara Monarchy in future even though that political calculations could prove impossible because of Ethiopia demographic change.

As an outcome of the TDF (Tigray Defence Forces) victory, Abiy Ahmed must resign immediately as he is the culprit of the human and material devastations in Tigray Region. Ceasefire and reconciliation will be impossible in Ethiopia as long as Abiy Ahmed is in the office because he is alleged of serious war crimes in Tigre Region. No nation accepts to be led by a suspect of civil war crimes.

As for reality on the ground, TDF (Tigray Defence Forces) cannot advance and seize Addis Ababa as they did in 1991 because demographics in Ethiopia have greatly changed. Today, all Ethiopian ethnic groups are armed to the teeth with all kinds of weapons. Oromo people, the biggest ethnic group in Ethiopia, are at war of resistance with Abiy’s administration to seize Addis Ababa. So, TDF do not want to engage in war of attrition with Oromo that they cannot win but lose at the end. Oromo people do not want Addis Ababa to fall into the hands of TDF but they welcome TDF to form military alliance led by OLF to oust Abiy Ahmed. Amhara, who massively participated in the death and destruction of Tigre Region to eliminate Tigre people as their number one enemy in power rivalry, also do not want to see that Addis Ababa falls to Tigre rule again for fear of reprisals. Somali people, who were brutalized by Tigre Government of Meles Zenawi, similarly do not want to see Tigre-led government in Addis Ababa again and may support Oromo alongside with other small ethnic groups to repel TDF if it tries to move toward Addis Ababa to seize the power. Such obstacles impede TDF to march toward Addis Ababa.

As the plan of Abiy Ahmed and Amhara hardliners to rule Ethiopia with iron-fist collapses, TDF has two options for possible scenarios after victory. The first option is to secure their region, then move against Amhara for revenge and then create and support Eritrean armed resistance to topple Isaias Afwerki as Amhara armed militias and Eritrean troops inflicted the maximum damage to Tigre people in ethnic cleansing, destruction, famine, rampant rape and displacement. Most of the population of Eritrea are ethnic Tigre and they are not happy with Isaias Afwerki’s policy for destroying Tigre people against each other. The second option for TDF is to break away from Ethiopia to declare independent country that could open a can of worms for Ethiopia disintegration. The first option is very likely to be chosen.

If PM Abiy Ahmed does not resign to give chance to pan-Ethiopia conference for reconciliation to restore democratic federalism, Ethiopia will go into ABYSS of devastating ethnic wars that could lead to total disintegration and emergence of new republics.

Ibrahim Hassan Gagale